Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson debate.Photo: Morry Gash/AP/Shutterstock
The future of the United States rests in the hands of voters, who will not only be determining which party controls Congress on Election Day, but will make consequential decisions about state leadership, too, at a time when hot-button issues are increasingly falling into the hands of government officials at the state level.
U.S. Senate
Arizona— Kelly vs. Masters
Mark Kelly, Blake Masters.Rob Schumacher-Pool/Getty; Brandon Bell/Getty
Georgia— Warnock vs. Walker
Raphael Warnock, Herschel Walker.Prince Williams/Wireimage; Cindy Ord/Getty
Rev. Sen. Raphael Warnock is a product of the “blue wave” that swept over Georgia in 2020,electing two Democratic senatorsand supporting Joe Biden for the presidency. Because Warnock was only elected to fill out the remainder of a former senator’s term, he is already up for reelection — and Republicans hope his rookie status, coupled with Georgia’s conservative voting history, will leave him vulnerable.
GOP officials weren’t wrong in identifying Warnock’s seat as flippable, but the party’s candidatehas proven less effectiveon the campaign trail than many Republicans hoped. Former NFL player Herschel Walker, a longtime Texas resident, returned to Georgia to challenge Warnock, relying on his former star power and endorsement from Trump to carry him over the finish line.
Over time, Walker has closed the polling gap, now pulling ever so slightly ahead of Warnock for the first time since June. While he now has a path to victory on Nov. 8, his endless stream of controversies and missteps have prevented him from becoming the total hero his party needed him to be.
One recent debacle involves Walker’s right-wing social media star son, 23-year-old Christian Walker,publicly breaking ties with his fatherafter allegations surfaced that the pro-life candidatepaid for an abortion in 2009, which Walker denies. Christian accused his dad’s entire campaign of being built on lies, and provided vague allegations of abuse from his childhood, writing on Twitter, “How DARE YOU LIE and act as though you’re some ‘moral, Christian, upright man.'”
Nevada— Cortez Masto vs. Laxalt
Catherine Cortez Masto, Adam Laxalt.Anna Moneymaker/Getty; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty
Republicans are counting on Nevada to help prevent a Democratic majority in Senate, as the toss-up race appears to be one of the GOP’s best shots at taking a blue seat. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is defending her position against Republican challenger Adam Laxalt.
Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to U.S. Senate, wants to make crystal clear to voters that a vote for Laxalt is a vote tocriminalize abortionnationwide. SinceRoe v. Wadewas overturnedin June, Americans across the political spectrum have flocked to the polls in support of Democrats —prioritizing reproductive rights over party preference— and the incumbent knows that her pro-choice values are her greatest asset.
The tight race between Cortez Masto and Laxalt reflects Nevada’s division. For middle-of-the-road voters who are equally passionate about abortion rights and inflation, the choice is unclear.
New Hampshire— Hassan vs. Bolduc
Maggie Hassan, Don Bolduc.Scott Eisen/Getty; Scott Eisen/Getty
New Hampshire Sen.Maggie Hassan, a registered Democrat who formerly served as the state’s governor, is the most bipartisan member of Senate right now — yet even in a left-leaning state, far-right challenger Don Bolduc is beginning to close in on her just ahead of the election.
Whereas Hassan is a centrist, Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, stands on the outer right ledge, embracing Trump and at times arguing that the 2020 election was stolen. New Hampshire, which is known for its moderate politics, ispro-choicelike Hassan, yet conservative financially, potentially explaining why Bolduc’s attacks on the Democrat have resonated with voters who may otherwise not consider themselves a part of Trump’s camp.
North Carolina— Budd vs. Beasley
Ted Budd, Cheri Beasley.Allison Joyce/Getty; Sean Rayford/Getty
Six years ago, Republican Sen.Richard Burrgave constituents a heads up that he would not run for reelection in 2022, giving the Republican and Democratic parties ample time to identify strong candidates to vie for his seat. Flash forward to today, and the fight to replace Burr is now one of the closest Senate races in America as North Carolinians are poised to split votes almost evenly between U.S. Rep. Ted Budd and esteemed jurist Cheri Beasley.
On the right is Budd, a Republican House representative who pushed to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election despite a lack of evidence that they were rigged. In September, he co-sponsored a House bill to ban abortions nationwide.
On the left is Beasley, former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, who has received endorsements from environmental and human rights groups. Her political stances would mark a shift in North Carolina’s representation, aiming to protect women’s rights and combat the climate crisis — which Burr and Budd have fought against.
Pennsylvania— Fetterman vs. Oz
John Fetterman, Mehmet Oz.Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Bonnie Biess/Getty
One of the most talked-about Senate races in 2022 is the matchup between Pennsylvania’s Democratic Lt. Gov.John Fettermanand MAGA-supporting celebrity doctorMehmet Oz. Fetterman, who had the strong advantage in the race from day one, saw his wide lead slowly shrink in recent weeks as the election drew near, with Oz officially surpassing him in polling averages for the first time on Monday night.
Fetterman’s most public rebuke of Oz is that he’s an outsider, awealthy New Jerseyantrying to use Pennsylvania voters to propel him further into the spotlight. Oz’sown actionshave only supported Fetterman’s point, as viral moment after viral moment pop up reminding Pennsylvanians of hisquestionable pastandlack of familiaritywith the Keystone State.
Oz, whonearly tied with his top Republican challengerin the GOP primary earlier this year, hopes to overcome the slew of negative press and soaron the wings of Trump’s endorsement. He hasmade Fetterman’s health a central focusof the campaign (the lieutenant governorsuffered a stroke in May, days before winning the Democratic primary), which appears to have worked to some extent — despite Fetterman’s insistence that he’son the road to full recovery— but hasn’t been enough to give him the upper hand.
Wisconsin— Johnson vs. Barnes
Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes.STR/NurPhoto via Getty; Sara Stathas for the Washington Post/Getty
Until late September, polls widely suggested that Wisconsin’s Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes would unseat aprominent Trump ally, Republican Sen.Ron Johnson. More recently, Johnson has taken the lead.
Barnes, only 35, has already had a successful political career, but running as a Black man in a state that is 87% white, he has been subject to attack ads that supporters are calling racist,darkening his skin toneand calling him “different” and “dangerous.”
Barnes’ momentum in the race was stunted when Johnson, 67, began moving the conversation away from hot-button issues like abortion and instead framing the election as a matter of keeping Wisconsinites safe, accusing Barnes of being a candidate who would allow crime to run rampant (Barnes supported the elimination of cash bonds in a move he said would keep criminals from buying their way out of jail; Republicans say it lets criminals run free).
As the incumbent, Sen. Johnson entered the race with the upper-hand, and it appears he has reclaimed it. Still, a race as close as his reinforces how split Wisconsin’s values are, and may be a testament to the unpopularity of pushing 2020 election lies on behalf of Trump.
U.S. House of Representatives
AK-01— Peltola vs. Palin vs. Begich
Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, and Nick Begich III.getty (3)
Final Polling:It’s a toss-up
Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off an upset win in Alaska’s special House election in August when shedefeated a pool of Republicans, including former Alaska governor and onetime vice presidential candidateSarah Palin. Rep. Peltola is the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House in 50 years.
But Peltola’s win did not take her off the campaign trail; her win only secured her a few months in the House as she finishes out her predecessor’s term. In November Peltola will once again face Palin, as well asNick Begich III, the grandson of former Alaska Rep. Nick Begich Sr., who is running as a Republican despite coming from a powerful Democratic family.
August’s special election was the first time Alaska tested its new ranked-choice voting system, which left some voters confused. The question now is whether conservative voters will change their ranked order votes after seeing how they benefited Peltola, or if electing her was their intention all along. If the win doesn’t go to Peltola, Palin appears to be next in line, though Begich does have a fighting chance.
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MI-07— Barrett vs. Slotkin
Tom Barrett, Elissa Slotkin.Senator Tom Barrett/Facebook; Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg via Getty
Final Polling:Slotkin has a slight advantage
Democratic Rep.Elissa Slotkinentered her second bid for reelection prepared for the fight of her career. She narrowly won in both previous elections, and facing a newly drawn district in 2022, it looked likely that GOP momentum would cut her congressional career short.
In late October,Republican Rep. Liz Cheney endorsed Slotkin, the first time she’s ever endorsed a Democrat’s campaign, in hopes that it helps keep Barrett, who has denied the results of the 2020 presidential election, away from Washington.
If Democrats want a fighting chance at maintaining control of the House in November, Slotkin will need to keep her seat — the Democratic Party can only afford to lose a couple toss-up races, and Slotkin’s is one they’re counting on holding onto.
NH-01— Pappas vs. Leavitt
Chris Pappas, Karoline Leavitt.Scott Eisen/Getty; AP Photo/Charles Krupa
Final Polling:Pappas has a slight advantage
Former Trump White House aide Karoline Leavitt, 25, hopes to unseat vulnerable Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas this year, which would make her the youngest woman elected to Congress and the first Gen Z congressperson (she’d likely share the latter title with 25-year-oldMaxwell Frost, a Democratic House candidate in Florida who’s heavily favored to win in the general election).
Pappas, the 42-year-old incumbent in the NH-01 race, is running for his third term in the House. Before that, he’d served on the New Hampshire Governor’s Executive Council and in the state House of Representatives. Pappas is one of only nine openly LGBTQ+ House members, and was the first openly gay man to represent New Hampshire in Congress.
TX-34— Flores vs. Gonzalez
Mayra Flores, Vicente Gonzalez.LM Otero/AP/Shutterstock; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Gett
Two current House representatives are going head to head in Texas’s 34th Congressional District. There’s Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, an experienced congressman with a natural upper-hand in the left-leaning district, and rookie Rep.Mayra Flores, a wild-card Republican on the far-right who took control of a historically Democratic seat earlier this year in a shocking special election.
Logic would suggest that Gonzalez is the more likely winner of the race, but experts are hesitant to underestimate Flores after she pulled Hispanic voters to the right and defied the odds in June, becoming the first Mexican-born woman in Congress. Flores also holds the distinction of running as the incumbent this time around; while Gonzalez has served longer in the House, he is running in a different district than he currently serves in.
In Flores' June election, Republicans around the nation flooded her with donations that helped her slide to victory. This time around, Democrats have learned that campaign financing will be a key component of defeating Flores, allowing Gonzalez to rake in millions of dollars. His win would not only be vital for helping Democrats reclaim a seat in the House, but would ease leftists' fears that Hispanic voters in Texas are flocking to the Republican Party.
State Elections
Arizona Governor— Hobbs vs. Lake
Katie Hobbs, Kari Lake.Ross D Franklin/AP/Shutterstock; Brandon Bell/Getty
Thegubernatorial racebetween Arizona Secretary of StateKatie Hobbsand former broadcast journalistKari Lakeexemplifies how two polar opposite candidates can achieve near-equal levels of popularity in the same state.
Lake has become the anti-hero of the campaign, spearheading culture wars and cosigning the stances that she knows will rile up far-right voters. Hobbs is more reserved, preaching an optimistic message of unity and growth and supporting the ever-popular charge to preserve reproductive rights, though one moment from her political past — when a Black state Senate staffer was wrongfully fired while she was the Senate minority leader — has kept some left-leaning voters from throwing their support behind her.
Nevada Governor— Sisolak vs. Lombardo
Steve Sisolak, Joe Lombardo.Ethan Miller/Getty; Ethan Miller/Getty
In an October debate between the candidates, Trump-backed Lombardo sought to distance himself from the scandal-ridden former president, partially agreeing with Sisolak that the 2020 presidential election was not stolen (“There was modicum of fraud, but nothing to change the election”). On other issues, though, the nominees confirmed that they are quite different from one another.
Lombardo has made clear that he is pro-life, though his campaign website suggests that Nevada voters will be the ones to decide if abortion is ever banned, not him. He also clarifies that he believes contraceptives are “an essential part of health care,” a more toned-down stance than many Republican nominees in races around the nation that has undoubtedly made him more palatable to moderate voters. Sisolak has much more strongly defended reproductive freedom and believes that climate change and Nevada’s wildfire and water supply challenges are directly correlated, something that Lombardo’s official stances skirt around.
Oklahoma Governor— Hofmeister vs. Stitt
Joy Hofmeister, Kevin Stitt.Sue Ogrocki/AP/Shutterstock; Dylan Hollingsworth/Bloomberg via Getty
Republicans weren’t initially too worried about Oklahoma’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Joy Hofmeister. In a state that’s voted firmly red in presidential elections since 1968, it’s always going to be an uphill battle to get a Democrat to the governor’s office. That — coupled with the fact that Gov.Kevin Stittpolled an average of 16 points ahead of Hofmeister for most of the summer — made the Republican incumbent’s path to reelection appear all but certain.
Meanwhile, Stitt has taken the campaign route of touting a strong economy in Oklahoma that could only have been achieved right now with his leadership. He argues that where Oklahoma needs to improve is not in its economy — an unusual talking point given nationwide financial strains right now — but in its quality of education, which he argues has suffered under Hofmeister’s direction.
Both candidates are taking unusual risks in their campaign messaging compared to what would be expected from their respective parties, but in Hofmeister’s case at least, it seems to be the kind of bold move that can revive a campaign.
Oregon Governor— Kotek vs. Drazan
Tina Kotek, Christine Drazan.AP Photo/Sara Cline; Jaime Valdez/Pamplin Media Group via AP, Pool
Oregon’s gubernatorial race is a monumental moment in politics, as the Democratic, Republican and independent candidates are all women; for context, the nation has never hadmore than nine female governorsat a time, and this year, woman are sweeping the ballots in executive elections more decisively than ever before.
Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and independent Betsy Johnson are all vying for the title of Oregon governor — and though Johnson is poised to place third, she’s polling in the double digits, a strong showing for a third-party candidate.
Currently, Kotek and Drazan are battling for first place. Kotek (along with Massachusetts gubernatorial frontrunnerMaura Healey) could become the first openly lesbian U.S. governor if elected. Her platform hits all the expected notes for a Democratic governor in a Democratic state, which is exactly what Drazan is campaigning against.
Drazan hopes to paint her potential governorship as a necessary break from Democrats' decades-long rule and convince voters to try something new. If elected, residents who have grown accustomed to liberal state policies could see a drastic shift in how Salem handles the issues of the moment.
Wisconsin— Evers vs. Michels
Tony Evers, Tim Michels.AP Photo/Morry Gash; AP Photo/Morry Gash
Wisconsin Gov.Tony Eversisn’t ready to hand the Executive Residence back over to Republicans. In one of the most back-and-forth states in America, Evers likely knew that reelection would not be easy when the time came, and he’s feeling that pressure now as polls show him neck-and-neck with wealthy GOP businessman Tim Michels, an Army veteran making another attempt at entering the political arena.
In the race, Michels aims to emulate Trump’s “outsider” approach to the 2016 presidential election, claiming he will “drain the swamp,” but his missing track record makes him a wild card in terms of how he’ll govern. Evers has already revealed his governing style, making him a safe bet — but anyone dissatisfied with Wisconsin’s state of affairs may not want to keep the status quo in Madison.
Check your voter registration, locate your polling place, and make a voting plan atVote.orgto ensure that your voice is heard this election season.
source: people.com
