I think about big , gimcrack batteries for a support , so I stay up late and listened to theTesla announcement . My first thoughts : These are fantastic prices for an uninterruptible big businessman provision — but still expensive as day - to - daytime electricity .
https://gizmodo.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-teslas-new-household-1701282649
In terms of what you get compared to marketplace prices , this is a good deal . $ 350 / kWhr for a 10 twelvemonth battery . Does n’t include an inverter but it ’s everything else required : cells , pack out , and power electronics . In 2015 this is a lot of battery for the money . Slam stuff shot as an uninterruptible power supplying . All numeral below simulate an lineman owes you a favour — and an inverter .
Specs from Tesla’sPowerwallproduct page . This is the battery design for home purpose
dig into the detail highlights the challenges that the system will face against fossil fuels . This is n’t Tesla doing anything wrong , this is the challenge of the current state - of - the - art engineering . hebdomadary cycles at a spec’d discharge pace of a 5 hour basis ( 2kW for 5 hours ) . 10 years of weekly cycles is a real number , just over 500 cycles at an 80 % DoD. The problem is the cost structure hurts here : If the assault and battery is used to its spec’d amount it works to $ 0.66 / kWhr - cycle per second , or over 5 times the marketplace rate for electricity in New Jersey , and this does n’t describe for the genesis that has to go into the assault and battery . Even with intemperately subsidized solar that ’s a combined $ 0.70 / kWhr - cycle . Using the battery less create it cost more base on its intended prosody : It ’s just an unfortunate conjugation of bombardment .
So this is the best - subject scenario near maximum utilization ; if you use the electric battery less over 10 years you pay off more per cycle ( correspondent to buying more country or insurance than you call for ) . If you buy the battery that ’s a undone toll as well , so with the time value of money it ’s more like ( very just about ) $ 0.70 to $ 0.75 / kwhr - cycle . There is an prolonged guarantee with pricing details on that which are unclear , but my guess is that it ’d be tough for Tesla to make any money if the telephone number dropped to below $ 0.50 / kwHr - hertz . I ’m making thing up now so I ’ll stop beating this distributor point .
On a per - kilowatt ground installed it ’s roughly 10x the cost of a received generator scheme , not accounting for the Leontyne Price of gas . assume gas is ~$0.03 to $ 0.05 / kWhr and the generator setup is 20 % effective , the cost of Energy Department is 4x to 8x , depending on time of day of exercise .
In harsh numbers : At this cost you need 10x the wheel life-time to contend with a generator frame-up at full utilization . to compete with utility pricing of electrical energy you need 10x the Hz life at 1/3rd the toll .
act armchair investor : They believably did this to hedge in against the great unwashed not buying enough elevator car to impregnate Gigafactory supply in the short term . Despite my notes above about the challenges of the $ 3500+inverter , to be a part of the Tesla marque speaks to my i d if not my ego .
Overall , if Tesla can deliver on what they take here , it ’s an significant product line in the sand for this market , and it can only force prices down . Until now Sony and Panasonic have been selling like systems for 3x the price , with little market uptake .
Everything above is open to rescript . Time make this material more clear .
Update : Last Nox I overlooked the 7 - kWhr battery at $ 3000 . If you are getting this out of the battery every Clarence Shepard Day Jr. for 10 years the price drops to $ 0.12 / kWhr - cycle , again neglect facility and inverter . If this is truly the spec this is an exceptional routine . It is still more expensive than a genset , but not by much . Also , remember that this is the monetary value after you already pay for the free energy to charge it . All in , based in New Jersey , this is still 2x the cost of storage-battery grid - delivered energy .
Still , I am curious what the specific use case is for the 7 kWhr bombardment , and if Tesla expects over 3000 cycles . If so , this large number is the virtuoso of the evening .
Update II : Dan posted a follow up piece : More Thoughts on Energy Storageover at Medium .
Dan Steingartis an adjunct prof in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton University . His team listens to what battery desire and then aid them make do with what the world wants .
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